MAIN PUBLICATION :



Home » TECHNOLOGY » Wind resource estimation » Forecasting » Example statistical accuracy of forecasts

Examples of Statistical Accuracy of Forecasts


To better understand the accuracy of a forecast and set the ‘snap shot’ time series results presented previously into a more statistical long-term context, it is necessary to look at a particular measure of accuracy over time.  There are several different measures that can be used, but a commonly used measure is to present the Mean Absolute Error of the forecast, normalised by the rated capacity of the wind farm, against forecast horizon.  Forecast accuracy is discussed further in Madsen et al (2005). The accuracy achieved is, of course, dependent on the specifics of the wind regime and the complexity of the site, as well as the country where the wind farm is located.  An example of the typical range of accuracies achieved by state-of-the-art forecasting methods is presented in Figure I.2.15.  


Figure I.2.15: Typical Range of Forecast Accuracy for Individual Wind Farms


Figure 2.15 Typical range of forecast accuracy for individual wind farms, Source Garrad Hassan

Source: Garrad Hassan

<< Example time series power prediction results Portfolio effects >>
  Acknowledgements | Sitemap | Partners | Disclaimer | Contact

coordinated by

EWEA

supported by

Intelligent Energy Europ

The sole responsibility for the content of this webpage lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that maybe made of the information contained therein.