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Chapter 2: Projecting targets for the EU-27 up to 2030

Targets for 2010

EWEA’s target for 2010 assumes that approximately 23.5 GW of wind energy will be installed from 2008-2010.

The Danish wind energy consultancy BTM Consult is more optimistic than EWEA, and foresees a cumulative installed capacity of 91.5 GW by the end of 2010. The main growth markets it highlights are Portugal, France and the UK.

By the end of 2007, 1.9% of wind capacity in EU was made up of offshore installations, producing 3.4% of total wind power in Europe. In 2010, EWEA expects 4.4% of total capacity and 16% of the annual market to be covered by offshore wind. Offshore wind power’s share of total EU wind energy production will increase to 7% by 2010.

The 56.5 GW of installed capacity in the EU-27 by the end of 2007 will, in a normal wind year, produce 119 TWh of electricity, enough to meet 3.7% of EU electricity demand. The capacity installed by the end of 2010 will produce 177 TWh in a normal wind year, equal to 5.0% of demand in 2010 (5.7% of 2006 demand). With efficiency measures, wind power’s share would cover 5.2% of electricity demand in 2010.

Germany is projected to reach 25 GW and Spain 20 GW of wind capacity in 2010. France, the UK, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands constitute a second wave of stable markets and will install 42% of new EU capacity over the 2008-2010 period.

For 2008, the annual EU market is expected to fall back to its 2006 level and increase slightly up to 2010 when it should reach 8,200 MW. The forecast assumes that the negotiations on a new EU Renewable Energy Directive and the subsequent development of national action plans in the Member States could cause some legal uncertainty until implemented.



Figure 2.1: Annual wind power capacity EU 1991-2010 (in MW)



Figure 2.2: Cumulative capacity EU 1991-2010 (in MW)

In the three-year period from 2007 to 2010, EWEA forecasts that 23.5 GW of wind energy capacity, including 2.4 GW offshore, will be installed. This will equate to total investments of €31 billion.

Over the same three-year period, Germany and Spain’s share of the European annual market will be 34%, compared to 60% in 2007 and 80% in 2002, confirming the healthy trend towards less reliance on the first-mover markets. The largest markets in the period are expected to be Spain (20.7%), Germany (14.4%), France (12.1%), the UK (11.6%) and Italy (7.6%). The total includes an additional 102 MW of capacity that should be built to replace turbines installed prior to 1991.



Figure 2.3: New wind power capacity EU 2008-2010 (total 23,567 MW)

Targets for 2020

On 9 March 2007, the European Heads of State agreed on a binding target of 20% renewable energy by 2020. The 2005 share of renewable energy was approximately 7% of primary energy and 8.5% of final consumption. In January 2008, the European Commission proposed a new legal framework for renewables in the EU, including a distribution of the 20% target between Member States and national action plans containing sectoral targets for electricity, heating and cooling, and transport.



Figure 2.4: National overall targets for the share of RES in final energy consumption 2020

To meet the 20% target for renewable energy, the European Commission expects 34% of electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2020 (43% of electricity under a “least cost” scenario) and believes that “wind could contribute 12% of EU electricity by 2020”.

In 2005 (the reference year of the proposed directive), approximately 15% of EU electricity demand was covered by renewables, including around 10% from large hydro and about 2.1% from wind energy. Excluding large hydropower, for which the realisable European potential has already been reached, and assuming that electricity demand does not increase, the share of renewable electricity in the EU will need to grow fivefold - from approximately 5% to 25% - to reach the electricity target. With increased demand, non-large hydropower renewable electricity will need to grow even more.

  2005 2020
Renewable energy sources (RES) 8.5% 20%
Electricity from RES 15% 34%
Wind Energy 2.1% 12-14%
   Of which offshore 0 3.2-4%

Table 2.1: Targets for RES, electricity from RES and wind energy for 2020

EWEA maintains the target it set in 2003 of 180 GW by 2020, including 35 GW offshore in its reference scenario. That would require the installation of 123.5 GW of wind power capacity, including 34 GW offshore, in the 13-year period from 2008 to 2020. 16.4 GW of capacity is expected to be replaced in the period.

The 180 GW would produce 477 TWh of electricity in 2020, equal to between 11.6% and 14.3% of EU electricity consumption, depending on the development in demand for power. 28% of the wind energy would be produced offshore in 2020.



Figure 2.5: Electricity from wind up to 2020

Between 2011 and 2020, the annual onshore market for wind turbines will grow steadily from around 7 GW per year to around 10 GW per year. The offshore market will increase from 1.2 GW in 2011 to reach 6.8 GW in 2020. Throughout the period of the reference scenario, the onshore wind power market exceeds the offshore market in the EU.



Figure 2.6: Wind energy annual installations 2000-2020 (in GW)

A precondition for reaching the EWEA target of 180 GW is that the upcoming Renewable Energy Directive establishes stable and predictable frameworks in the Member States for investors. Much also depends on the European Commission’s Communication on Offshore Wind Energy (scheduled for the second half of 2008) and a subsequent adoption of a European policy for offshore wind power in the EU.

Targets for 2030

In the EWEA reference scenario, 300 GW of wind power will be operating in the EU in 2030, including 120 GW (40%) of offshore wind power. 187 GW will be installed in the decade from 2021 to 2030. Of this, 67 GW will be needed to replace decommissioned capacity, predominantly onshore. Onshore will represent 54% (101 GW) of the capacity installed during that decade and the onshore market will remain larger than the offshore market throughout, although the gap narrows towards the end. By 2030, the annual onshore market will be 9.9 GW and the offshore market 9.6 GW, representing investments of €19 billion. In 2025, the offshore market is expected to reach the size of the 2008 onshore market (8.5 GW).

Total installations in the period from 2008 to 2030 will be 327 GW, made up of 207 GW onshore and 120 GW offshore. Of this, 83 GW will come from the replacement of decommissioned onshore capacity. Total investments between 2008 and 2030 will be €339 billion.

By 2030, wind energy will produce 935 TWh of electricity, half of it from offshore wind power, and cover between 21% and 28% of EU electricity demand, depending on future power consumption.



Figure 2.7: Electricity from wind up to 2030

The onshore market will stabilise at approximately 10 GW per year throughout the decade 2020-2030 and 72% of the onshore market will come from the replacement of older wind turbines. The offshore segment increases from an annual installation of 7.3 GW in 2021 to 9.5 GW in 2030.



Figure 2.8: Wind energy annual installations 2000-2030 (in GW)

The wind power production in 2030 will avoid the emission of 575 Mt of CO2, the equivalent of taking more than 280 million cars off the roads. In 2004 there were 216 million cars in the EU-25.

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